Hi all,
Due to popular demand(!), we have moved to a bigger room for tomorrow's risk judgment mini-conference. We are now in 2x4 of the Cottrell building
If you cannot make it inperson then here is a Teams link: https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3aFEiRQmaO77cZmh9sZiplM6k1sttL…
Looking forward to seeing you at 11.30,
A reminder of the talks is appended below
Dave
At 11.30 Philip Ebert (Stirling) will present on "End user and forecaster interpretations of the European avalanche danger scale: a study of avalanche probability judgements in Scotland"
at 12.15 Martina Barjakova (University of Milano-Bicocca) will present on "Delayed synergies are harder to see: an experimental investigation of factors influencing synergistic judgements of health risks"
Abstracts below:
End user and forecaster interpretations of the European avalanche danger scale: a study of avalanche probability judgements in Scotland
We investigate Scottish end users’ risk perception ( N = 678) of the five point European Avalanche Danger Scale by eliciting numerical probability judgements. Our main findings are that end users’ risk perception of the danger scale increases linearly rather than exponentially (as intended by the avalanche services), confirming recent findings by Morgan, Haegeli, Finn, and Mair (2023) who used a different scale and a North American user group. Second, we find significant differences in the perceived probability of avalanches relative to a given avalanche danger level depending on whether respondents are asked by a frequency or a percentage chance response format. More specifically, we find that a frequency format elicits lower estimates and, in some cases, a higher variance. Third, we find that individual characteristics of end users (such as outdoor sport experience, age, gender, avalanche education, and having experienced an avalanche) has little explanatory power to predict their interpretation of the avalanche danger scale. Finally, using a small scale sample (N = 19) of professional avalanche forecasters in Scotland, we find that there is little expected and actual overlap between end users and professional forecasters in their numerical interpretation of the danger scale. We summarise our findings by identifying important lessons for strategies to improve avalanche risk understanding and its communication.
Delayed synergies are harder to see: an experimental investigation of factors influencing synergistic judgements of health risks
When certain health hazards are combined, they produce synergies. In other words, they lead to risks that are greater than the sum of risks presented by each factor separately. For instance, smoking and radon exposure interact synergistically to increase lung cancer risk. Without doubt, how people judge such risk combinations is important – and previous research showed mostly underestimation of synergistic risks. Our previous research instead suggests that people are better at judging certain synergistic risks as such than others. In the current pre-registered study, we aim to understand why this is the case. In particular, we experimentally test whether the likelihood of judging a combination of risk factors as synergistic depends on the outcome being immediate or delayed, binary or continuous, or whether knowledge about the outcome plays a role. We find that synergistic judgements are much more likely for immediate outcomes compared to the delayed ones. Thanks to the structure of our data, we are also able to shed light on the possible mechanism for this. In particular, our data suggest that this result is due to the difference in how much weight people give to the single risk factors for immediate vs delayed outcomes, not to how they evaluate the combination of risk factors. Our study furthermore tests for the effects of format of the task. We find that synergistic judgements are more likely if natural frequencies and partitive probabilities are used, as opposed to non-partitive (single-case) probabilities. These results have important implications for communications concerning synergistic health risks.
Prof. David Comerford
Economics Division<https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/stirling-management-school/our-resea…>, Stirling Management School, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA.
(+44 / 0) 75-42-188-166
Director, Behavioural Science Centre<https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/>
Program Director, MSc Behavioural Science<https://www.stir.ac.uk/courses/pg-taught/behavioural-science/>
Recent publications:
Bridger, E. K., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Comerford, D. A. (2023). Perceived health inequalities: are the UK and US public aware of occupation-related health inequality, and do they wish to see it reduced?. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 2326.
Comerford, D. A., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Bridger, E. K. (2023). Public preferences to trade-off gains in total health for health equality: Discrepancies between an abstract scenario versus the real-world scenario presented by COVID-19. Rationality and Society, 10434631231193599.
________________________________
Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence
The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159
Hi all,
If you have a topic / theory that you would like to highlight to students as one that has particular potential to develop then please let me know.
Generally our students come with an interest in topics but are less fixed regarding the specific theories they apply to that topic. So if you have a theory / method you wish to gather data on then there may be an opportunity to develop a fruitful collaboration through an MSc dissertation.
Our MSc students will be presenting their ideas around dissertation topics tomorrow at 1pm in rm 2a75.
We will have 12 students presenting, each for 5 mins + 2mins feedback from the floor.
If you can pop in for any presentations between 1-3pm then I am sure students will greatly appreciate it.
Best wishes,
Dave
Prof. David Comerford
Economics Division<https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/stirling-management-school/our-resea…>, Stirling Management School, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA.
(+44 / 0) 75-42-188-166
Director, Behavioural Science Centre<https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/>
Program Director, MSc Behavioural Science<https://www.stir.ac.uk/courses/pg-taught/behavioural-science/>
Recent publications:
Bridger, E. K., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Comerford, D. A. (2023). Perceived health inequalities: are the UK and US public aware of occupation-related health inequality, and do they wish to see it reduced?. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 2326.
Comerford, D. A., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Bridger, E. K. (2023). Public preferences to trade-off gains in total health for health equality: Discrepancies between an abstract scenario versus the real-world scenario presented by COVID-19. Rationality and Society, 10434631231193599.
________________________________
Scotland's University for Sporting Excellence
The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159
Hi all,
The Behavioural Science Centre is running a mini-workshop on risk perception and risk communication Friday Feb 23 11.30 - 1pm, Cottrell bldg 2b46.
We will have two speakers presenting related papers back-to-back
At 11.30 Philip Ebert (Stirling) will present on "End user and forecaster interpretations of the European avalanche danger scale: a study of avalanche probability judgements in Scotland"
at 12.15 Martina Barjakova (University of Milano-Bicocca) will present on "Delayed synergies are harder to see: an experimental investigation of factors influencing synergistic judgements of health risks"
Abstracts below:
End user and forecaster interpretations of the European avalanche danger scale: a study of avalanche probability judgements in Scotland
We investigate Scottish end users’ risk perception ( N = 678) of the five point European Avalanche Danger Scale by eliciting numerical probability judgements. Our main findings are that end users’ risk perception of the danger scale increases linearly rather than exponentially (as intended by the avalanche services), confirming recent findings by Morgan, Haegeli, Finn, and Mair (2023) who used a different scale and a North American user group. Second, we find significant differences in the perceived probability of avalanches relative to a given avalanche danger level depending on whether respondents are asked by a frequency or a percentage chance response format. More specifically, we find that a frequency format elicits lower estimates and, in some cases, a higher variance. Third, we find that individual characteristics of end users (such as outdoor sport experience, age, gender, avalanche education, and having experienced an avalanche) has little explanatory power to predict their interpretation of the avalanche danger scale. Finally, using a small scale sample (N = 19) of professional avalanche forecasters in Scotland, we find that there is little expected and actual overlap between end users and professional forecasters in their numerical interpretation of the danger scale. We summarise our findings by identifying important lessons for strategies to improve avalanche risk understanding and its communication.
Delayed synergies are harder to see: an experimental investigation of factors influencing synergistic judgements of health risks
When certain health hazards are combined, they produce synergies. In other words, they lead to risks that are greater than the sum of risks presented by each factor separately. For instance, smoking and radon exposure interact synergistically to increase lung cancer risk. Without doubt, how people judge such risk combinations is important – and previous research showed mostly underestimation of synergistic risks. Our previous research instead suggests that people are better at judging certain synergistic risks as such than others. In the current pre-registered study, we aim to understand why this is the case. In particular, we experimentally test whether the likelihood of judging a combination of risk factors as synergistic depends on the outcome being immediate or delayed, binary or continuous, or whether knowledge about the outcome plays a role. We find that synergistic judgements are much more likely for immediate outcomes compared to the delayed ones. Thanks to the structure of our data, we are also able to shed light on the possible mechanism for this. In particular, our data suggest that this result is due to the difference in how much weight people give to the single risk factors for immediate vs delayed outcomes, not to how they evaluate the combination of risk factors. Our study furthermore tests for the effects of format of the task. We find that synergistic judgements are more likely if natural frequencies and partitive probabilities are used, as opposed to non-partitive (single-case) probabilities. These results have important implications for communications concerning synergistic health risks.
Prof. David Comerford
Economics Division<https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/stirling-management-school/our-resea…>, Stirling Management School, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA.
(+44 / 0) 75-42-188-166
Director, Behavioural Science Centre<https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/>
Program Director, MSc Behavioural Science<https://www.stir.ac.uk/courses/pg-taught/behavioural-science/>
Recent publications:
Bridger, E. K., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Comerford, D. A. (2023). Perceived health inequalities: are the UK and US public aware of occupation-related health inequality, and do they wish to see it reduced?. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 2326.
Comerford, D. A., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Bridger, E. K. (2023). Public preferences to trade-off gains in total health for health equality: Discrepancies between an abstract scenario versus the real-world scenario presented by COVID-19. Rationality and Society, 10434631231193599.
________________________________
Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence
The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159
Dear PhD lab,
Apologies – I meant to write this e-mail last week already, but I ran out of hours in a day. :-)
This is a quick update for everyone who wasn’t at last week’s lab. During the last lab session, we decided that
1. We will give the hidden curriculum sessions more structure.
* Rather than you preparing questions about certain topics and us supervisors answering them in a fireside chat-type format, we will convert these sessions into a book club
* We can alternate book club sessions with sessions in which a student presents their progress
* We will use Hector’s suggested reading (Marc Bellemare (2022) Doing Economics: What You Should Have Learned in Grad School ― But Didn’t) for this
* Please reach out to Hector, if you’d like a pdf version of the book
* There are 5 Chapters (not counting the Introduction)
* Ch 2: Writing Papers
* Ch 3: Giving Talks
* Ch 4: Navigating Peer Review
* Ch 5: Finding Funding
* Ch 6: Doing Service
* So there are 5 book club sessions we can run throughout the term
* Proposed structure:
* Everyone reads the respective chapter ahead of the book club
* One PhD student gives a 15-20 minute presentation about the chapter as a discussion starter
* We then discuss the boom chapter together and supervisors can offer their own views and experiences on the respective topic that way
* The first book club session will take place next week, 15th of February
* To prepare, please read: Chapter 2 – Writing Papers
* Katie kindly volunteered to give the first presentation on this
* Kevin will give the presentation on Chapter 3 – Giving Talks, either end of February or after the Reading Week (mid March)
2. This Wednesday, Jasmine will use the PhD lab as a dry run for her upcoming annual review presentation.
See you Wednesday!
Best,
Till
________________________________
Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence
The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159
Hi all,
Here is a date for your calendar: On May 02, 2024 we are hosting a
"Scottish Behavioural Science Conference". We would like to invite
everybody in Scotland (and with links to Scotland) working on the edge of
economics and psychology (and related disciplines such as philosophy) to
Stirling to meet each other. It will be a networking event with relatively
short presentations and time to talk about research, projects, grants,
joint seminars, etc. Here is the website (work in progress):
https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/2024/01/29/scottish-behavioural-science-conferenc…
I am currently looking for behavioural scientists at other Scottish
Universities to invite, having an eye on gender balance. Do you know of
people who might be interested?
And do you like to present as well? (Please note that I would like to wait
adding presenter names from Stirling until we have some more presenters
from other universities to signal that it should be a Scotland-wide event.)
All the best and looking forward to hearing from you,
Leo
Dear Behavioural Science cluster,
Good news! We passed the next IAS studentship competition hurdle and are among the ten clusters the University will advertise.
See below for (currently sparse) details.
Best,
Till
Begin forwarded message:
From: Institute for Advanced Studies <ias(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:ias@stir.ac.uk>>
Subject: IAS Studentships 2024 Cluster Selection Outcome
Date: 26. January 2024 at 15:11:12 GMT
To: Till Stowasser <till.stowasser(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:till.stowasser@stir.ac.uk>>
Cc: Iain Docherty <iain.docherty(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:iain.docherty@stir.ac.uk>>, Karen Sutherland <karen.sutherland1(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:karen.sutherland1@stir.ac.uk>>
Dear Till
The IAS Executive met last week to review the 23 PGR Cluster proposals that were submitted to select those that will be advertised for this year’s studentship competition. The panel assessed how each proposal met the specified criteria in coming to its decisions. The standard of proposals was extremely high, and there was consensus that ten of the proposed clusters were ahead of the others in meeting the criteria, which marked them out as the very best of an extremely strong field. I am delighted to tell you that your cluster, Tackling challenges of environmental and human health – A behavioural science approach, is one of these and will go forward to be advertised.
We are currently working with CMR on setting up the competition and have a provisional launch date of 12th February. To support this process, we require a plain language summary of the purpose and aims of the cluster which will be added to the Studentship webpages. This should be approx. 500 words and include the contact details of cluster leads and the two sample projects. Please send this to IAS(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:IAS@stir.ac.uk> by Tuesday 30th January.
For information, the Clusters that have been successful are noted below.
(Physical Activity for) Positive and Healthy Ageing
Just AI Lab
Evaluating the socioenvironmental benefits of Nature-based Solutions (NbS)
Clacks Living Lab: Community wealth building and sustainable, net zero communities
Inclusive Ageing in a Digital World
People on the Move
Accessible Environments
Heritage at the Extremes: Temporalities, Politics and Practices of Care
Environmental Justice and Low Carbon Transitions
Tackling challenges of environmental and human health – A behavioural science approach
With very best wishes
Professor Iain Docherty FAcSS FRSE FRGS FRSA FHEA FICE CMILT
Dean, Institute for Advanced Studies
University of Stirling
Stirling
FK9 4LA
Tel: +44 (0) 1786 466088
Email: iain.docherty(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:iain.docherty@stir.ac.uk>
Web: www.stir.ac.uk<https://www.stir.ac.uk/>
[Facebook icon]<https://www.facebook.com/universityofstirling/> [Twitter icon] <https://twitter.com/StirUni> [LinkedIn icon] <https://www.linkedin.com/edu/university-of-stirling-12676> [Instagram icon] <https://www.instagram.com/universityofstirling/> [Youtbue icon] <https://www.youtube.com/user/UniversityOfStirling>
[Banner]<https://www.stir.ac.uk/>
[Scotland's University for Sporting Excellence]
________________________________
Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence
The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159
Hi folks,
Let’s have the PhD lab online today. Seems like trains won’t be operative until later today.
See you later,
Till
________________________________
Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence
The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159
Hi all,
I am delighted that we will be welcoming back to present her Keep Scotland Beautiful award-winning dissertation Elanor Teel MSc.
Elanor will present on "From Acknowledgement to Action: Updating Framing Messages to Elicit Public Will for a
Freshwater Petition in British Columbia".
The talk will take place in rm 4b96 next Wed Jan 24, 1-2pm.
Looking forward to seeing you there,
Dave
Prof. David Comerford
Economics Division<https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/stirling-management-school/our-resea…>, Stirling Management School, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA.
(+44 / 0) 75-42-188-166
Director, Behavioural Science Centre<https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/>
Program Director, MSc Behavioural Science<https://www.stir.ac.uk/courses/pg-taught/behavioural-science/>
Recent publications:
Bridger, E. K., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Comerford, D. A. (2023). Perceived health inequalities: are the UK and US public aware of occupation-related health inequality, and do they wish to see it reduced?. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 2326.
Comerford, D. A., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Bridger, E. K. (2023). Public preferences to trade-off gains in total health for health equality: Discrepancies between an abstract scenario versus the real-world scenario presented by COVID-19. Rationality and Society, 10434631231193599.
________________________________
Scotland's University for Sporting Excellence
The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159