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Online talk tomorrow 1.30pm Alycia Chin (Securities and Exchange Commission)

by David Comerford

Tomorrow at 1.30 the Behavioural Science Centre is delighted to host an online talk from Alycia Chin<https://www.sec.gov/biography/chin-alycia> of the SEC. Teams link here<https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_ODI3NTE3Y2ItNDMxZC00…>. Title: Beliefs about the Stock Market: Framing Effects in Subjective Expectations Abstract Financial models argue that investment decisions partially depend on expectations about stock market returns. However, reported expectations – like any other survey responses – may depend on the wording of the questions eliciting those expectations. In the current research, we explore a relatively novel “probability” framing effect. Across 3 studies, respondents appear to hold significantly different beliefs about future stock market performance depending on whether they report the probability the stock market will go up or down, with a difference in beliefs of up to 15 percentage points. The direction of the difference is the opposite of most framing effects that display descriptions of attributes, with participants who are asked about stock market declines appearing more optimistic. We find this “probability” framing effect moderates with subjective numeracy and financial literacy; however, not with survey experience, as differences in beliefs persist over repeated survey administration for many months. We rule out several potential explanations for this effect, and discuss implications of a “probability” framing effect for future researchers and survey designers to consider. Keywords: stock market, subjective expectations, framing effect Prof. David Comerford Economics Division<https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/stirling-management-school/our-resea…>, Stirling Management School, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA. (+44 / 0) 75-42-188-166 Director, Behavioural Science Centre<https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/> Program Director, MSc Behavioural Science<https://www.stir.ac.uk/courses/pg-taught/behavioural-science/> Recent publications: Bridger, E. K., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Comerford, D. A. (2023). Perceived health inequalities: are the UK and US public aware of occupation-related health inequality, and do they wish to see it reduced?. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 2326. Comerford, D. A., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Bridger, E. K. (2023). Public preferences to trade-off gains in total health for health equality: Discrepancies between an abstract scenario versus the real-world scenario presented by COVID-19. Rationality and Society, 10434631231193599. ________________________________ Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159

1 year, 1 month

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risk judgment mini-conference now in C2X4

by David Comerford

Hi all, Due to popular demand(!), we have moved to a bigger room for tomorrow's risk judgment mini-conference. We are now in 2x4 of the Cottrell building If you cannot make it inperson then here is a Teams link: https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3aFEiRQmaO77cZmh9sZiplM6k1sttL… Looking forward to seeing you at 11.30, A reminder of the talks is appended below Dave At 11.30 Philip Ebert (Stirling) will present on "End user and forecaster interpretations of the European avalanche danger scale: a study of avalanche probability judgements in Scotland" at 12.15 Martina Barjakova (University of Milano-Bicocca) will present on "Delayed synergies are harder to see: an experimental investigation of factors influencing synergistic judgements of health risks" Abstracts below: End user and forecaster interpretations of the European avalanche danger scale: a study of avalanche probability judgements in Scotland We investigate Scottish end users’ risk perception ( N = 678) of the five point European Avalanche Danger Scale by eliciting numerical probability judgements. Our main findings are that end users’ risk perception of the danger scale increases linearly rather than exponentially (as intended by the avalanche services), confirming recent findings by Morgan, Haegeli, Finn, and Mair (2023) who used a different scale and a North American user group. Second, we find significant differences in the perceived probability of avalanches relative to a given avalanche danger level depending on whether respondents are asked by a frequency or a percentage chance response format. More specifically, we find that a frequency format elicits lower estimates and, in some cases, a higher variance. Third, we find that individual characteristics of end users (such as outdoor sport experience, age, gender, avalanche education, and having experienced an avalanche) has little explanatory power to predict their interpretation of the avalanche danger scale. Finally, using a small scale sample (N = 19) of professional avalanche forecasters in Scotland, we find that there is little expected and actual overlap between end users and professional forecasters in their numerical interpretation of the danger scale. We summarise our findings by identifying important lessons for strategies to improve avalanche risk understanding and its communication. Delayed synergies are harder to see: an experimental investigation of factors influencing synergistic judgements of health risks When certain health hazards are combined, they produce synergies. In other words, they lead to risks that are greater than the sum of risks presented by each factor separately. For instance, smoking and radon exposure interact synergistically to increase lung cancer risk. Without doubt, how people judge such risk combinations is important – and previous research showed mostly underestimation of synergistic risks. Our previous research instead suggests that people are better at judging certain synergistic risks as such than others. In the current pre-registered study, we aim to understand why this is the case. In particular, we experimentally test whether the likelihood of judging a combination of risk factors as synergistic depends on the outcome being immediate or delayed, binary or continuous, or whether knowledge about the outcome plays a role. We find that synergistic judgements are much more likely for immediate outcomes compared to the delayed ones. Thanks to the structure of our data, we are also able to shed light on the possible mechanism for this. In particular, our data suggest that this result is due to the difference in how much weight people give to the single risk factors for immediate vs delayed outcomes, not to how they evaluate the combination of risk factors. Our study furthermore tests for the effects of format of the task. We find that synergistic judgements are more likely if natural frequencies and partitive probabilities are used, as opposed to non-partitive (single-case) probabilities. These results have important implications for communications concerning synergistic health risks. Prof. David Comerford Economics Division<https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/stirling-management-school/our-resea…>, Stirling Management School, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA. (+44 / 0) 75-42-188-166 Director, Behavioural Science Centre<https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/> Program Director, MSc Behavioural Science<https://www.stir.ac.uk/courses/pg-taught/behavioural-science/> Recent publications: Bridger, E. K., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Comerford, D. A. (2023). Perceived health inequalities: are the UK and US public aware of occupation-related health inequality, and do they wish to see it reduced?. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 2326. Comerford, D. A., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Bridger, E. K. (2023). Public preferences to trade-off gains in total health for health equality: Discrepancies between an abstract scenario versus the real-world scenario presented by COVID-19. Rationality and Society, 10434631231193599. ________________________________ Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159

1 year, 1 month

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Behavioural Science thesis development session - rm 2A75, 1pm tomorrow

by David Comerford

Hi all, If you have a topic / theory that you would like to highlight to students as one that has particular potential to develop then please let me know. Generally our students come with an interest in topics but are less fixed regarding the specific theories they apply to that topic. So if you have a theory / method you wish to gather data on then there may be an opportunity to develop a fruitful collaboration through an MSc dissertation. Our MSc students will be presenting their ideas around dissertation topics tomorrow at 1pm in rm 2a75. We will have 12 students presenting, each for 5 mins + 2mins feedback from the floor. If you can pop in for any presentations between 1-3pm then I am sure students will greatly appreciate it. Best wishes, Dave Prof. David Comerford Economics Division<https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/stirling-management-school/our-resea…>, Stirling Management School, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA. (+44 / 0) 75-42-188-166 Director, Behavioural Science Centre<https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/> Program Director, MSc Behavioural Science<https://www.stir.ac.uk/courses/pg-taught/behavioural-science/> Recent publications: Bridger, E. K., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Comerford, D. A. (2023). Perceived health inequalities: are the UK and US public aware of occupation-related health inequality, and do they wish to see it reduced?. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 2326. Comerford, D. A., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Bridger, E. K. (2023). Public preferences to trade-off gains in total health for health equality: Discrepancies between an abstract scenario versus the real-world scenario presented by COVID-19. Rationality and Society, 10434631231193599. ________________________________ Scotland's University for Sporting Excellence The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159

1 year, 1 month

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mini-workshop on risk perception and risk communication Friday Feb 23 11.30 - 1pm, 2b46

by David Comerford

Hi all, The Behavioural Science Centre is running a mini-workshop on risk perception and risk communication Friday Feb 23 11.30 - 1pm, Cottrell bldg 2b46. We will have two speakers presenting related papers back-to-back At 11.30 Philip Ebert (Stirling) will present on "End user and forecaster interpretations of the European avalanche danger scale: a study of avalanche probability judgements in Scotland" at 12.15 Martina Barjakova (University of Milano-Bicocca) will present on "Delayed synergies are harder to see: an experimental investigation of factors influencing synergistic judgements of health risks" Abstracts below: End user and forecaster interpretations of the European avalanche danger scale: a study of avalanche probability judgements in Scotland We investigate Scottish end users’ risk perception ( N = 678) of the five point European Avalanche Danger Scale by eliciting numerical probability judgements. Our main findings are that end users’ risk perception of the danger scale increases linearly rather than exponentially (as intended by the avalanche services), confirming recent findings by Morgan, Haegeli, Finn, and Mair (2023) who used a different scale and a North American user group. Second, we find significant differences in the perceived probability of avalanches relative to a given avalanche danger level depending on whether respondents are asked by a frequency or a percentage chance response format. More specifically, we find that a frequency format elicits lower estimates and, in some cases, a higher variance. Third, we find that individual characteristics of end users (such as outdoor sport experience, age, gender, avalanche education, and having experienced an avalanche) has little explanatory power to predict their interpretation of the avalanche danger scale. Finally, using a small scale sample (N = 19) of professional avalanche forecasters in Scotland, we find that there is little expected and actual overlap between end users and professional forecasters in their numerical interpretation of the danger scale. We summarise our findings by identifying important lessons for strategies to improve avalanche risk understanding and its communication. Delayed synergies are harder to see: an experimental investigation of factors influencing synergistic judgements of health risks When certain health hazards are combined, they produce synergies. In other words, they lead to risks that are greater than the sum of risks presented by each factor separately. For instance, smoking and radon exposure interact synergistically to increase lung cancer risk. Without doubt, how people judge such risk combinations is important – and previous research showed mostly underestimation of synergistic risks. Our previous research instead suggests that people are better at judging certain synergistic risks as such than others. In the current pre-registered study, we aim to understand why this is the case. In particular, we experimentally test whether the likelihood of judging a combination of risk factors as synergistic depends on the outcome being immediate or delayed, binary or continuous, or whether knowledge about the outcome plays a role. We find that synergistic judgements are much more likely for immediate outcomes compared to the delayed ones. Thanks to the structure of our data, we are also able to shed light on the possible mechanism for this. In particular, our data suggest that this result is due to the difference in how much weight people give to the single risk factors for immediate vs delayed outcomes, not to how they evaluate the combination of risk factors. Our study furthermore tests for the effects of format of the task. We find that synergistic judgements are more likely if natural frequencies and partitive probabilities are used, as opposed to non-partitive (single-case) probabilities. These results have important implications for communications concerning synergistic health risks. Prof. David Comerford Economics Division<https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/stirling-management-school/our-resea…>, Stirling Management School, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA. (+44 / 0) 75-42-188-166 Director, Behavioural Science Centre<https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/> Program Director, MSc Behavioural Science<https://www.stir.ac.uk/courses/pg-taught/behavioural-science/> Recent publications: Bridger, E. K., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Comerford, D. A. (2023). Perceived health inequalities: are the UK and US public aware of occupation-related health inequality, and do they wish to see it reduced?. BMC Public Health, 23(1), 2326. Comerford, D. A., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Bridger, E. K. (2023). Public preferences to trade-off gains in total health for health equality: Discrepancies between an abstract scenario versus the real-world scenario presented by COVID-19. Rationality and Society, 10434631231193599. ________________________________ Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159

1 year, 1 month

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PhD lab sessions: Agenda change

by Till Stowasser

Dear PhD lab, Apologies – I meant to write this e-mail last week already, but I ran out of hours in a day. :-) This is a quick update for everyone who wasn’t at last week’s lab. During the last lab session, we decided that 1. We will give the hidden curriculum sessions more structure. * Rather than you preparing questions about certain topics and us supervisors answering them in a fireside chat-type format, we will convert these sessions into a book club * We can alternate book club sessions with sessions in which a student presents their progress * We will use Hector’s suggested reading (Marc Bellemare (2022) Doing Economics: What You Should Have Learned in Grad School ― But Didn’t) for this * Please reach out to Hector, if you’d like a pdf version of the book * There are 5 Chapters (not counting the Introduction) * Ch 2: Writing Papers * Ch 3: Giving Talks * Ch 4: Navigating Peer Review * Ch 5: Finding Funding * Ch 6: Doing Service * So there are 5 book club sessions we can run throughout the term * Proposed structure: * Everyone reads the respective chapter ahead of the book club * One PhD student gives a 15-20 minute presentation about the chapter as a discussion starter * We then discuss the boom chapter together and supervisors can offer their own views and experiences on the respective topic that way * The first book club session will take place next week, 15th of February * To prepare, please read: Chapter 2 – Writing Papers * Katie kindly volunteered to give the first presentation on this * Kevin will give the presentation on Chapter 3 – Giving Talks, either end of February or after the Reading Week (mid March) 2. This Wednesday, Jasmine will use the PhD lab as a dry run for her upcoming annual review presentation. See you Wednesday! Best, Till ________________________________ Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159

1 year, 1 month

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"Scottish Behavioural Science Conference" in Stirling (Thursday, May 02, 2024)

by Leonhard Lades

Hi all, Here is a date for your calendar: On May 02, 2024 we are hosting a "Scottish Behavioural Science Conference". We would like to invite everybody in Scotland (and with links to Scotland) working on the edge of economics and psychology (and related disciplines such as philosophy) to Stirling to meet each other. It will be a networking event with relatively short presentations and time to talk about research, projects, grants, joint seminars, etc. Here is the website (work in progress): https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/2024/01/29/scottish-behavioural-science-conferenc… I am currently looking for behavioural scientists at other Scottish Universities to invite, having an eye on gender balance. Do you know of people who might be interested? And do you like to present as well? (Please note that I would like to wait adding presenter names from Stirling until we have some more presenters from other universities to signal that it should be a Scotland-wide event.) All the best and looking forward to hearing from you, Leo

1 year, 1 month

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Climate Science and Environmental Justice

by Gozde Ozakinci

Hello This might interest some of you https://www.academyofbmr.org/virtual-events/2024-symposium-climate-science-… Best wishes, Gözde Professor of Health Psychology Deputy Dean of Faculty of Natural Sciences Faculty of Natural Sciences Division of Psychology 3A81 Cottrell Building University of Stirling Stirling FK9 4LA Click here<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Foutlook.o…> for student meeting bookings (contact me if slots are not suitable) Stirling Health Psychology on the Web<https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/natural-sciences/our-research/resear…> Twitter: @gozde786 [cid:image001.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.faceb…> [cid:image002.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.c…> [cid:image003.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linke…> [cid:image004.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.insta…> [cid:image005.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtu…> [cid:image006.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://www.stir.ac.uk/> [cid:image007.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] [cid:image008.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] ________________________________ Scotland's University for Sporting Excellence The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159

1 year, 2 months

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Fwd: IAS Studentships 2024 Cluster Selection Outcome

by Till Stowasser

Dear Behavioural Science cluster, Good news! We passed the next IAS studentship competition hurdle and are among the ten clusters the University will advertise. See below for (currently sparse) details. Best, Till Begin forwarded message: From: Institute for Advanced Studies <ias(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:ias@stir.ac.uk>> Subject: IAS Studentships 2024 Cluster Selection Outcome Date: 26. January 2024 at 15:11:12 GMT To: Till Stowasser <till.stowasser(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:till.stowasser@stir.ac.uk>> Cc: Iain Docherty <iain.docherty(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:iain.docherty@stir.ac.uk>>, Karen Sutherland <karen.sutherland1(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:karen.sutherland1@stir.ac.uk>> Dear Till The IAS Executive met last week to review the 23 PGR Cluster proposals that were submitted to select those that will be advertised for this year’s studentship competition. The panel assessed how each proposal met the specified criteria in coming to its decisions. The standard of proposals was extremely high, and there was consensus that ten of the proposed clusters were ahead of the others in meeting the criteria, which marked them out as the very best of an extremely strong field. I am delighted to tell you that your cluster, Tackling challenges of environmental and human health – A behavioural science approach, is one of these and will go forward to be advertised. We are currently working with CMR on setting up the competition and have a provisional launch date of 12th February. To support this process, we require a plain language summary of the purpose and aims of the cluster which will be added to the Studentship webpages. This should be approx. 500 words and include the contact details of cluster leads and the two sample projects. Please send this to IAS(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:IAS@stir.ac.uk> by Tuesday 30th January. For information, the Clusters that have been successful are noted below. (Physical Activity for) Positive and Healthy Ageing Just AI Lab Evaluating the socioenvironmental benefits of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) Clacks Living Lab: Community wealth building and sustainable, net zero communities Inclusive Ageing in a Digital World People on the Move Accessible Environments Heritage at the Extremes: Temporalities, Politics and Practices of Care Environmental Justice and Low Carbon Transitions Tackling challenges of environmental and human health – A behavioural science approach With very best wishes Professor Iain Docherty FAcSS FRSE FRGS FRSA FHEA FICE CMILT Dean, Institute for Advanced Studies University of Stirling Stirling FK9 4LA Tel: +44 (0) 1786 466088 Email: iain.docherty(a)stir.ac.uk<mailto:iain.docherty@stir.ac.uk> Web: www.stir.ac.uk<https://www.stir.ac.uk/> [Facebook icon]<https://www.facebook.com/universityofstirling/> [Twitter icon] <https://twitter.com/StirUni> [LinkedIn icon] <https://www.linkedin.com/edu/university-of-stirling-12676> [Instagram icon] <https://www.instagram.com/universityofstirling/> [Youtbue icon] <https://www.youtube.com/user/UniversityOfStirling> [Banner]<https://www.stir.ac.uk/> [Scotland's University for Sporting Excellence] ________________________________ Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159

1 year, 2 months

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Behavioural Research UK

by Gozde Ozakinci

Hello In case this is of interest BR-UK Online Launch Registration (office.com)<https://forms.office.com/pages/responsepage.aspx?id=sAafLmkWiUWHiRCgaTTcYdQ…> Behavioural Research UK (BR-UK) is a research consortium funded by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) via the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). The consortium serves as a leadership hub that is part of a wider ESRC programme to build national capability for behavioural research. Join our online webinar on March 4th from 10am to 11.30am for an opportunity to meet the BR-UK leaders and research team and learn more about our ambition to conduct interdisciplinary behavioural research that will contribute to addressing societal challenges. The full agenda and connection details for the webinar will be provided to registered participants in due course. You can follow BR-UK on: LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/company/behavioural-research-uk X (Formerly Twitter) at https://twitter.com/BehaviourRes_UK Best wishes, Gözde Professor of Health Psychology Deputy Dean of Faculty of Natural Sciences Faculty of Natural Sciences Division of Psychology 3A81 Cottrell Building University of Stirling Stirling FK9 4LA Click here<https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Foutlook.o…> for student meeting bookings (contact me if slots are not suitable) Stirling Health Psychology on the Web<https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/natural-sciences/our-research/resear…> Twitter: @gozde786 [cid:image001.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.faceb…> [cid:image002.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.c…> [cid:image003.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.linke…> [cid:image004.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.insta…> [cid:image005.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtu…> [cid:image006.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] <https://www.stir.ac.uk/> [cid:image007.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] [cid:image008.png@01D94546.FAB73C00] ________________________________ Scotland's University for Sporting Excellence The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159

1 year, 2 months

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PhD lab online today

by Till Stowasser

Hi folks, Let’s have the PhD lab online today. Seems like trains won’t be operative until later today. See you later, Till ________________________________ Scotland’s University for Sporting Excellence The University of Stirling is a charity registered in Scotland, number SC 011159

1 year, 2 months

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2025

2024

2023