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DO CHINESE EXPORTER STILL OUTCOMPETE SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA'S TILAPIA?
One of the concerns many in sub-Saharan Africa express is the competition local producers face from cheap tilapia imported from China. However, for a couple of years now, China’s tilapia exports are declining and, at present,
only 10% of its total production of tilapia is exported. While China has been a significant source of competition in the past, this is no longer entirely true, and we can maybe even breathe a sigh of relief: competition from China has forced commercial tilapia
producers in sub-Saharan Africa to become more efficient and to build a brand for their products. Their focus may therefore now shift to competition from other proteins, such as chicken, instead.
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Figure 1:
China's tilapia exports to sub-Saharan Africa
Source: General Administration of Customs People’s Republic of China
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"China’s Tilapia Volume Used for Exports Declined from 650,000 MT in 2013 to below 178,000 MT in 2020"
While tilapia production in China is believed to be stable at around 1.8m MT, its exports fell dramatically from a live weight equivalent (LWE) of 650,000 MT in 2013 to 178,000 MT
in 2020. The LWE of fillet exports dropped the most: from 500,000 MT to 78,000 MT, while the exports of whole fish only dropped from 150,000 MT to 100,000 MT (Figure 2).
The decline in exports is a clear indication of China’s booming domestic market—and just like for other seafood, such as shrimp, China’s role as a tilapia exporter might soon be over. This may be the case sooner for larger fish used for fillets than for the
smaller whole round tilapia, for which sub-Saharan Africa is still the largest market.
"Sub-Saharan Africa Has Become China’s Largest Tilapia Market"
According to Chinese customs, after climbing from 75,000 MT in 2013 to 93,000 MT in 2018, sub-Saharan Africa’s imports of Chinese tilapia dropped to 61,000 MT in 2020. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 60% of China’s total official whole tilapia
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exports. Figure one provides an overview of Chinese tilapia to various regions in sub-Saharan Africa.
Western Africa is clearly the largest importer of Chinese tilapia and its import volume continues to rise. In 2020, the region imported 42,000 MT according to Chinese export data. The markets in the region are interconnected. While Côte d’Ivoire is clearly
the largest importer of Chinese tilapia, part of that import is destined for landlocked markets—such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—and some product might be informally supplied to Ghana and Nigeria, which have officially banned tilapia imports.
Imports into Eastern Africa declined from 16,000 MT in 2015 to 10,000 MT in 2020. Rwanda (40%), Kenya (30%), and Zambia (20%) are the largest importers. While Rwanda increased its imports in 2020 (to 4,000 MT), Kenya’s imports remained flat (at 3,000 MT), and
Zambia’s declined (from 12,000 MT in 2013 to only 2,200 MT in 2020).
Exports to Middle Africa fluctuated between 15,000 MT and 22,000 MT from 2015 to 2018, dropped to 10,000 MT in 2019, and further to 5,000 MT in 2020. The big plunge would have been caused by reduced imports into Angola and Cameroon. The Democratic Republic
of the Congo and Gabon are currently the region’s largest importers.
China’s export data also shows a decline in Southern Africa’s imports. Import data from local customs, however, shows a steady increase from 6,300 MT in 2015 to more than 12,000 MT in 2019.
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Figure 2:
Decline in tilapia exports in LWE estimation of actual export volume
Source:
https://www.trademap.org
Note: Export volumes converted to a LWE with a ratio of 0.37 for fillets and an average ratio of 0.9 for whole round, and gutted and scaled tilapia.
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"Insiders Believe Import Data of China, and Sub-Saharan Africa to be Underreported"
Many insiders in the aquaculture industry in sub-Saharan Africa believe that the actual volume of tilapia imported from China might be larger than the volume
declared to customs: it is thought that importers and exporters may agree to declare the product as, say, mackerel or as “other fish” to circumvent import duties on tilapia or bans that prohibit the import of Chinese tilapia.
Suspicion is fueled by reports which describe higher import numbers than statistics show. An example includes a recent study of the impact that imported Chinese
tilapia has on the dynamics of the fish market in Kisumu, Kenya. The 20,000 MT
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mentioned in the study is much higher than Kenya’s formal import numbers, which, for 2019, were reported at 2,500 MT of tilapia and an additional 8,000 MT of “freshwater and saltwater fish,” possibly also consisting of tilapia,
imported from China. This total of 10,500 MT only accounts for half of the volume reported in the study. Either the study overestimated the volume or a considerable amount of product is smuggled into the country.
This is just one example. There are suspicions that tilapia is also smuggled into other countries, such as Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia. One industry source
even claims that, especially when looking at medium-sized tilapia, legitimate imports are increasingly outcompeted by local producers. He therefore believes that legitimate imports consist mainly of small sizes, and that larger sizes might be smuggled into
the country to escape import duties.
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