[Media-watch] Occupation Watch Bulletin

[David J McKnight]

Occupation Watch Bulletin
By Marjorie Lasky
10 January 2005

Iraq and the Elections Fiasco

Residing in a country where almost 1/2 of those adults of voting age actually voted in November 2004, one can't help but be "shocked and awed" at the Bush/Blair hypocrisy about furthering democracy in Iraq by holding elections on January 30.  In the U.S., eligible voters don't vote for a variety of reasons, few of which are reflected in the chaos that is present-day Iraq -- it is increasingly clear that to be involved in electoral politics today in Iraq, whether as a poll worker, candidate, or potential voter, is to court the possibility of death. It is also clear that numerous groups and individuals seek to postpone the election until the UN and/or Iraqi politicians can redesign the electoral process, which, according to many Sunni, discriminates against Sunni representation. This week's OW bulletin focuses on recent media coverage as to how and why the Iraqi elections are to occur and people's reactions to this potential democratic debacle.

First of all, lest anyone thinks a new government will actually be put in place after January 30, two recent articles by IRIN, the United Nations Regional Integrated Information Network, clarify the election process -- the January 30 elections are slated to elect a National Assembly which will then devise a constitution that needs to be approved by the Iraqi people in a referendum before a new government is elected.
"Special Report on Elections"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8641

The IRIN article partially analyzes the ethnic and religious composition of political parties, the voter identification system, and the representation of women in the new governmental structure, and begins to outline how the lack of security in Iraq will and does harm the electoral process.  A second IRIN article focuses on the Kurdistan north where support and confidence in the electoral system exist, even though those perceptions are waning.
"Iraq:  Special Report on Elections"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8667

And an op-ed piece by Larry Diamond, a former advisor to Paul Bremer (previous US administrator in Iraq), captures some of the problems the Sunni face in the upcoming elections.  Since the National Assembly is to be chosen by proportional representation out of the entire national vote, the Sunni, who make up 15-20% of Iraq's population, are concerned that the current violence in Sunni regions will militate against voter turn-out and the Sunni will gain, at best, a tiny percentage of Assembly seats and minimal power in Iraq's new government.
"How a Vote Could Derail Democracy"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8754

Bremer had actually set up the process of proportional representation late in his tenure in Iraq. In one of the many ironies that the invasion and occupation of Iraq provides, the above-cited Larry Diamond, as a member of Bremer's team, participated in engineering the proportional representation policy that he now decries. According to the journalist Steven Weisman, this policy has come to haunt many officials in the Bush administration.
"U.S. is Haunted by Initial Plan for Iraq Voting"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8717

Indeed, Iraq's main Sunni party has maintained that it will boycott the election and possibly reject the constitution. An internal US State Department poll confirms that only 32% of the Sunni are "very likely" to vote in the election and only 12% consider the election legitimate.  Dan Murphy reports that "fear, anger, confusion" will keep most Sunnis from voting and, echoing many other analysts, quotes Juan Cole: ""If the Sunnis are grossly underrepresented in this constitutional constituent assembly, it will be set up for a guerrilla war that lasts for decades.'"

"Iraqis Threaten to Reject Charter"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8645

"Internal US Poll Shows Sunnis Not Likely to Vote in Iraq Election"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8739

Dan Murphy
"If Sunnis, won't vote, then what?"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8640

Nancy Youssef confirms that by increasingly identifying themselves by religion or ethnicity, the campaigning parties and politicians in Iraq have worsened ethnic and religious tensions, which many analysts, like Cole, think might lead to a post-election civil war.
"Campaigning in Iraq has worsened ethnic, religious tensions"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8710

Indeed, many observers of daily life in Iraq might surmise that some version of a civil war, exacerbated by the possibility of upcoming elections, has already begun:

Dexter Filkins
"Some Areas are Unsafe for Vote, U.S. General Says"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8681

US General Warns of 'Spectacular' Attacks in Iraq
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8696

Jackie Spinner
"After Threats, Iraqi Electoral Board Resigns"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8732

Why, then, is it so important to some individuals and groups that these elections be held on January 30?  Numerous answers to that question exist. According to Immanuel Wallerstein, the Bush administration wants the election: 1) "to show that these elections can be held" despite the insurgents' attacks; 2) because the U.S. fears that, "if they weren't held, they would be blamed by the Ayatollah al-Sistani, who might then shift his position from one of prudent distance from the U.S. to one of active hostility"; 3) "the U.S. hopes to be able to shift the political/military battle in Iraq" to Iraqi insurgents fighting a legitimate Iraqi government; and 4) as the prerequisite to reducing U.S. troops in Iraq.
"Bush and the World:  The Second Term"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8755

The Shi'ites desire the election since if the present scenario comes to pass the Shi'ite-dominated alliance headed by the supporters of the Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani will control the Iraqi government. Iran supports the election since a Shi'ite victory could bring Iraq closer to Iran.  (How ludicrous that President Bush and one of his designated "evil empires" end up supporting an action that could possibly create an even greater "evil empire"--from Bush's perception!) Some women want the election because they envision a even greater, more equalitarian public life in Iraq.
Hannah Allam
"Iraqi Women Divided about Whether to vote Conservative"
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8747

For opinions on the election by various Iraqis, see the article by Jiji Mansoor* (a pseudonym), one of Occupation Watch's Independent Iraqi journalists:
"Attitudes of People and Parties to the Upcoming Political Elections"
Jiji Mansoor*
http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=8617

What can we conclude about the Iraqi elections at this point?  In answering that question, consider Larry Diamond's hypothesis:  "This would not be the first instance when badly timed and ill-prepared elections set back the prospects for democracy, stability and ethnic accommodation. Think of Angola in 1992, Bosnia in 1996, Liberia in 1997."

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