[Media-watch] News management

[John Meed]

Dear MediaWatch

The Spanish government's reactions to the terrorist attacks in Madrid
provide an interesting example of both the tactics and dangers of news
management.

Before the attacks happened, the government had reason to fear that both
al-quaida and ETA might be planning something prior to the elections. ETA
have of course a long history of attacks in Spain and they had been caught
red-handed with explosives on a train at Christmas time, while in mid-2003
Jorge Dezcallar, the Director of the Spanish National Centre for
Intelligence (CNI), had advised NATO that there was a high risk of attacks
on Spanish soil from al-quaida, following the Spanish government's support
of the 'coalition'. What is more, the Norwegian Defence Intelligence service
had found Internet warnings from islamic groups threatening attacks in Spain
in the run up to the elections.

However, it was immediately clear that the attacks carried political as well
as human costs. An ETA attack might swing support behind the government,
which had adopted a 'get tough' approach to the organisation. An al-quaida
attack, on the other hand, might damage the cause of a government that had
so openly backed Blair and Bush in their invasion of Iraq - in the face of
hostile public opinion.

So it appears that the government decided to emphasise the ETA line and to
play down the information they already had about al-quaida. In a series of
briefings Angel Acebes (Interior Minister) and Jose Maria Aznar (Prime
Minister) insisted throughout Thursday and Friday that ETA was the
'principal suspect' for the attacks. On Friday in a letter leaked to the
radio station Cadena SER, Foreign Minister Ana Palacio wrote to all Spanish
ambassadors instructing them to state that ETA were behind the attacks.

By early Friday evening El Pais was already reporting that the police had
concluded that the explosives and the detonators were not of the types
usually involved in ETA attacks. A tape with verses from the Koran was found
in a lorry with some more detanators.  Despite this, the government
spokesman continued to insist on Saturday morning that ETA remained the
'principal line of investigation'. Not until Saturday evening - just hours
before the elections began - did the Interior Minister move towards the
islamicist option as he announced the arrest of 5 suspects.

So soon after the events it is difficult to assess exactly what effects the
attacks and the government's handling of them had on the election results.
It is possible that the opinion polls suggesting a narrow victory for the
government were wrong. It is also possible that the attacks would have been
enough to undermine the government even if they had handled them in a more
even-handed manner.

However it seems possible that the government's spin campaign backfired in
spectacular fashion as an incensed Spanish public flooded into the polling
booths and elected the socialists. Ironically, a year to the day after
Aznar, Bush and Blair held their council of war in the Azores, the new
socialist prime minister elect announced the planned withdrawal of Spanish
troops from Iraq.

John