[Media-watch] Despite media, belief in WMD and Iraq - Al Qaeda links persist -PRNewswire - 21 April 2004

[Mark and Andrea]

It's worth adding that this poll is American. Does anyone have access to
similar data for Britain

-----Original Message-----
From: media-watch-bounces at lists.stir.ac.uk
[mailto:media-watch-bounces at lists.stir.ac.uk]On Behalf Of Julie-ann
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Sent: 21 April 2004 17:45
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Subject: [Media-watch] Despite media,belief in WMD and Iraq - Al Qaeda
links persist -PRNewswire - 21 April 2004


http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/04-21
-2004/0002156598&EDATE=

ROCHESTER, N.Y., April 21 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Harris Poll finds that
public perceptions of the facts that led up to the invasion of Iraq remain
almost unchanged in spite of a barrage of media reports that might have
changed them.



For example:



A  51% to 38% majority continues to believe that "Iraq actually had weapons
of mass destruction," virtually unchanged since February.



A  49% to 36% plurality of all adults continues to believe that "clear
evidence that Iraq was supporting Al Qaeda has been found." These numbers
have scarcely changed since June  2003.



A  51% to 43% plurality continues to believe that "intelligence given before
the war to President Bush by the CIA and others about Iraqi's weapons of
mass destruction" was "completely" or "somewhat" accurate. In February a 50%
to 45% plurality believed this.



While a 43% plurality believes that the "U.S. government deliberately
exaggerated the reports of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq to increase
support for war," a 50% plurality (also virtually unchanged over the last
eight months) continues to believe that the government "tried to present the
information accurately."



These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 979 adults surveyed
telephone by Harris Interactive(R) between April 8 and 15, 2004.



Sense of being "bogged down" increases

Only one of the eight questions asked in this survey on Iraq found any
significant change over the last two months. Those who believe that it is
"very likely" that the U.S. will get "bogged down" for a long time in Iraq
and not be able to create a stable government there" have increased from 37%
in February to 45% now. However this has had no significant impact on the
number of people who "favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops there
until there

is a stable government " (42%) or those who favor "bringing most of our
troops home in the next year" (51%).



A case of cognitive dissonance?

The remarkable stability of these numbers suggest that people have made up
their minds on many of the key issues relating to weapons of mass
destruction and links to Al Qaeda, and that it would take something very big
to change them. It seems that people believe media reports which fit with
their opinions and reject those which do not. The balance on several of the
key questions is tilted roughly 50% to 40% in favor of the administration.



The potential impact of these issues in the November elections

If President Bush continues to enjoy this modest but significant advantage
between now and November, it will be difficult for Senator Kerry and the
Democrats to use these issues against him in the election campaign. If, on
the other hand, a substantial majority of the public comes to believe that
there were no weapons of mass destruction, or links to Al Qaeda, or that
President Bush exaggerated the evidence to increase support for the
invasion, the result

could be disastrous for him.



(Cut as very long, More including tables of results at URL.)


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