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<p class="elementToProof" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Tomorrow at 1.30 the Behavioural Science Centre is delighted to host an online talk from
<a href="https://www.sec.gov/biography/chin-alycia" title="https://www.sec.gov/biography/chin-alycia" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;" id="LPlnk798013">
Alycia Chin</a> of the SEC. Teams link <a href="https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_ODI3NTE3Y2ItNDMxZC00MjA5LTgxYWMtZDY2Njg5ZTNhMjg0%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%224e8d09f7-cc79-4ccb-9149-a4238dd17422%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22c5b49f7e-b704-4222-82a9-61ce32474b48%22%7d" id="LPlnk824266" title="https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_ODI3NTE3Y2ItNDMxZC00MjA5LTgxYWMtZDY2Njg5ZTNhMjg0%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%224e8d09f7-cc79-4ccb-9149-a4238dd17422%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22c5b49f7e-b704-4222-82a9-61ce32474b48%22%7d" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">
here</a>.</span></p>
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<p class="elementToProof" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Title: Beliefs about the Stock Market: Framing Effects in Subjective Expectations</span></p>
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<p class="elementToProof" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Abstract</span></p>
<p style="text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Financial models argue that investment decisions partially depend on expectations about stock market returns. However, reported
expectations – like any other survey responses – may depend on the wording of the questions eliciting those expectations. In the current research, we explore a relatively novel “probability” framing effect. Across 3 studies, respondents appear to hold significantly
different beliefs about future stock market performance depending on whether they report the probability the stock market will go up or down, with a difference in beliefs of up to 15 percentage points. The direction of the difference is the opposite of most
framing effects that display descriptions of attributes, with participants who are asked about stock market declines appearing more optimistic. We find this “probability” framing effect moderates with subjective numeracy and financial literacy; however, not
with survey experience, as differences in beliefs persist over repeated survey administration for many months. We rule out several potential explanations for this effect, and discuss implications of a “probability” framing effect for future researchers and
survey designers to consider.</span></p>
<p class="elementToProof" style="text-align: left; text-indent: 0px;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Keywords: stock market, subjective expectations, framing effect</span></p>
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<p><span style="font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Prof. David Comerford</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a href="https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/stirling-management-school/our-research/research-areas/economics/" id="OWAffc5cc79-05c9-5f50-c363-3173dea98c41" class="OWAAutoLink" title="https://www.stir.ac.uk/about/faculties/stirling-management-school/our-research/research-areas/economics/" data-loopstyle="linkonly" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">Economics
Division</a>, Stirling Management School, University of Stirling, FK9 4LA. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">(+44 / 0) 75-42-188-166</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Director,
<a href="https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/" id="OWA85b74188-e356-9643-899f-cce20dab3175" class="OWAAutoLink" title="https://behsci.stir.ac.uk/" data-loopstyle="linkonly" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">
Behavioural Science Centre</a></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Program Director,
<a href="https://www.stir.ac.uk/courses/pg-taught/behavioural-science/" id="OWA22fa17d8-b63f-319e-a7c6-d6b481864d16" class="OWAAutoLink" title="https://www.stir.ac.uk/courses/pg-taught/behavioural-science/" data-loopstyle="linkonly" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px;">
MSc Behavioural Science</a></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Aptos, Aptos_EmbeddedFont, Aptos_MSFontService, Calibri, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Recent publications:</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Bridger, E. K., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Comerford, D. A. (2023). Perceived health inequalities: are the UK and US public aware of occupation-related
health inequality, and do they wish to see it reduced?. <i>BMC Public Health</i>,
<i>23</i>(1), 2326.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; color: rgb(34, 34, 34); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Comerford, D. A., Tufte-Hewett, A., & Bridger, E. K. (2023). Public preferences to trade-off gains in total health for health equality:
Discrepancies between an abstract scenario versus the real-world scenario presented by COVID-19.
<i>Rationality and Society</i>, 10434631231193599.</span></p>
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